Every once in a while I feel like I should post how things are going at the tables. Here are my first 90,000 hands of $4nl since jumping up there this year. Not great, not terrible. I see a lot of room for improvement, but I'm pretty happy that I've been able to maintain almost the same winrate that I had at $2nl. I thought I'd have a sharp drop off.

I'm also happy about my winrate since I practice basically no table selection whatsoever. I'll sit with 5 regs, I don't care. It's not an ego thing, it's probably neutral or slightly -EV, in the short run. But I figure if I'm going to play higher I better get used to playing against regs. So it's good practice if nothing else.

A lot of my previous misconceptions about midstakes games have been shattered. Sure, there are better regs, and more of them. But there are still fish, and reg fish. I'm reminded of something I read from a fellow player on 2p2, who said that as you get better and better you classify more players as fish. I see that happening with myself. A year go, if I saw a table with all 21/17's sitting in, I would run away. Now I look to exploit each players weak tendencies. Some regs fold way too often to c-bets, or not enough. Some fold a ton to river bets, or again, some not enough...etc.

Which ever way it seems like the player leans, I try to push on that. The scary thing is how much room for improvement I still see in my play. I miss value bets frequently, I make calls when I should know better, I chicken out still on calling hands that I'm pretty sure are bluffs, especially if I'm having a bad session. I also need to open up my 3betting more. So I definitely see ways to win at higher and higher rates. I hope I can get there, because my roll is almost ready for $3/6nl.

Everyone please take a moment and sign this petition. And if you're a blogger, please just put up a quick post with this link in it. Only take 37 seconds, I counted.

Have to post this one. I just knew it. Guy was livid afterwards.

Wow. Could this NBA offseason be going any better for Cleveland? (The answer is no.) They pick up Shaq while giving up very little. But the key to this trade, like any trade, is how the pieces fit. Shaq to Phoenix was awful, and I predicted it. He didn't fit, and it wasn't hard to see. I'm genuinely surprised people who know basketball so well, like Kerr and D'Antoni, couldn't see something so obvious.

What is even more obvious is how well Shaq fits in with Cleveland. And again, I'm surprised at what a lot of analysts are saying about the trade. Most are saying it doesn't help the Cavs out very much. They are very wrong. Shaq fits perfectly with what the Cavs already do; running a half court offense most of the time. There shouldn't be any problems with cohesion. They don't have to change anything really.

Secondly, Z and Andy will still get tons of playing time. Shaq will only play 55-60 games, and he won't be stacking on heavy minutes either. So people wondering what will happen with Z don't really understand the situation at all. Z is still going to get a ton of playing time and be a solid backup. How many teams get a 7'3 center with an excellent mid range game coming off the bench?

So the Cavs match up very well now with Orlando. Howard had trouble getting things going against the Celtics, and it wasn't because of lack of touches like he thought. It was because Big Baby and Perkins kept him out of the lane with their huge bodies. Howard is a beast, but he has very underdeveloped legs. And he still can't muscle through the larger defenders. This is the only reason the Magic made it through the Cavs in my opinion. Shaq will keep Howard away from the hoop and force him to make hook shots or free throws. (And Howard still doesn't have a jumper.)

On top of that, Hedo opts out of his contract with the Magic...AND they trade away Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, and Tony Battie to get Vince Carter. This is a truly puzzling move. I understand why they let go of Alston since Nelson will be back next year. But Courtney Lee is one of the best young talents in the Eastern Conference. I think they're gonna regret this the way Dallas regrets letting go of Devin Harris. What exactly does Vince add to the Magic? It's like they don't understand what it is they do.

The Magic space the floor with Howard in the middle and shooters around him. Carter isn't a 3-point shooter. And he's undersized, which now gives away the size advantage the Magic had over many teams. Carter also prefers playing around the key area most of the time. This is gonna make it easier for teams to collapse on Howard. Before, you had to keep Hedo honest since he could hit the 3. But if you see Vince Carter out there, you can leave him to double Howard. Or if he plays inside, again, you can double on and off. It's gonna be a lot harder to have a well spaced floor with Vince in place of Hedo. And it's going to be a lot easier to defend the 6'6 Carter than it was the 6'10 Turkglu.

Really poor off season moves by the Magic. They're gonna have a tough time even making it back to the Conference Finals. And great move by the Cavs. If they stay healthy...they should dominate again this year.

I'm so disappointed in the Cavs so far this series. I can't even watch anymore. I'm taping the game tonight, and I'll check the score around 11pm or so. I'm only watching it if they tie the series up, otherwise it'll be depressing to watch.

It's such a shame too. If you've only been watching the conference finals, you'd think the Cavs were a mediocre team that was being carried along by LeBron. But the entire regular season, and the first 2 rounds were completely different. Z, Mo, Delonte, they all helped out a lot, and shot the ball well. Ilgauskus can't make anything. And Mo is sucking out loud. People are saying the Magic should be up 3-0, but in reality it could just as easily be the Cavs up 3-0. Delonte missed a wide open 3 at the end of game 1. And if they could hit a bucket in game 3, they would have had a good chance there too. Instead LeBron bricks 4 free throws, and Howard luckboxes 15 of 19 from the line. (Run good?)

As god awful as the Cavs have played, they've been in all 3 games. Now if they could just shoot the ball like they have all season, they'll run the Magic out the building, take back home court, and win this series. For the love of god, somebody make a shot!

So I went 4-0 on my 2nd round predictions after getting killed on my opening round ones. Having said that, the conference final matchups are going to be very hard to predict. Both series could go either way.

Denver is actually playing really good team defense in the playoffs; something that I thought would keep them from success in the playoffs. But they've stepped it up. And they can beat the Lakers. They match up really well too. Much better than the Rockets did, and the Rockets took them to 7 games.

Denver can match the size of the Lakers. They're a long team. Carmelo is 6'8 I think, and K-Mart is 6'9. And they have the 6'10 Birdman coming off the bench too. So the Lakers won't be able to own the offensive boards like they did against the Rockets in several of the games. Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, Denver is just as physical as Houston. And LAs kryptonite is physical teams. They're still soft in my opinion. And they still have mental lapses on defense.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Denver is gonna beat them. And it might be a pummeling if Denver can grab game 1.

As for the Cleveland Orlando series. This is another interesting one. I was happy to watch Boston lose game 7 on their home court (ecstatic really.) But I would have preferred the Cavs see Boston. They could sweep the Celtics. But Orlando is a much different team. So how do the Cavs match up?

Pretty good. Of course there is no answer for LeBron. So let's move on. Ilguaskas will be the key in this series. Dwight owns the paint, but Z can shoot 20 footers like nothing. And Howard will eventually have to come out and guard him. He'll simply have no choice. Z can even hit 3 pointers, so this will keep Howard 15 feet away from the basket very often. With the floor open like this, LeBron and Mo will have a field day. Other than Howard, they lack a strong defensive presence. And I expect the Cavs to have an easier time scoring against the Magic than they would Boston.

But things are more tricky on the defensive end. Let's face it, Ilguaskas won't be able to guard Howard by himself. He's gonna need help. And this will leave some of the Magic shooters open. And this is the key for their team. They do well when they shoot the 3 well. And they suck out loud when they shoot poorly from 3. Thankfully, 3point shooting isn't particularly consistent, and the Cavs have good perimeter defenders (LeBron and West.) So unless the Magic can shoot lights out for most of the series, they're gonna have a hard time. I'm takin' the Cavs.

So let's say, Denver in 6.
Cleveland in 5.

I am having a blast playing $4nl these days. I'm winning at a decent rate, but that's not the fun of playing. The regs are better, but that makes for more interesting play. There is a rationale behind their plays that goes beyond "I have a hand, so I should bet," or "I don't have a hand, so I should check."

Take this hand for instance. Here is a hand that basically never happened at $2nl or below. There simply aren't regs there who are willing to 2 barrel an OESD and then fire a bricked river. But at $4nl, it's very different. That's probably why it took me so long to finally jump up. I was playing the same style, and it wasn't as effective against players who will play this way. (I also ran $4k below all in equity. lol)

I have half a dozen hands like the one above just from this month alone. And not all of them were correct. But the point is to be thinking through each hand, assign a range to villain, and act accordingly. Even if that means calling river pot sized river bets with K high like in my previous post. Or marginal hands for river PSB's.

The regs who do the best at $4nl all seem to have the ability to make some super sick calls. As well as the ability to put out bets that put opponents to the test. Here's a river bet with a busted combo draw. This is something I rarely did in the past but have noticed all the winning regs do. So I'm looking to incorporate bets like this into my arsenal. It also helps that lrdofdarkness is a really good, thinking reg. I would never try this against a non thinking player who is just gonna call with an overpair or tptk without realizing what kind of range I have in this spot.

So it's been a lot more enjoyable this past month playing these tables. I'm not getting in as many hands as I used to, and that's the only thing upsetting me at the moment. I stop a lot of sessions quickly if I lose a few buyins to avoid tilting. And I also quit anytime I notice I'm not focusing like I should be. I find I do terribly if I try to autopilot the $4nl or $6nl tables. A few times I've hopped on some $3/6nl tables and dropped $1200 in 15 minutes right after waking up from a nap. This wasn't a problem at $2nl. I could be sleepy or zone out and do just fine. But I can't do that anymore. So I end up getting fewer hands in since I don't wanna be at the tables unless I'm ready to play my A game.

I've been using HM as a tool to keep me on my A game. Someone on 2p2 posted that they review hands before they play. So I started doing that. And I've noticed it really helps. I'll watch 20-50 hands in the HM replayer and just pay attention to what is going on in every hand. This only takes like 10 minutes, and then I'm ready to play.

One last thing I've been doing again is printing out hands of my opponents and studying them when I have free time. I have my poker binder sitting on my coffee table. Anytime I'm just sitting there I look over hands from the tougher regs while I drink coffee and try and absorb everything that they do; both to figure out their tendencies, as well as find new things to add to my game.

I think it's paying off too. I've put in a ton of work on my game the last 5 months. And for the year I'm winning at 5ptbb/100. A winrate I never thought I'd keep at $2 and $4nl. I still think I have a lot of ways to improve. So I'm looking forward to the rest of this summer. I'll have a lot of free time so I'm going to continue to study hard and try and play consistently at the $6nl and hopefully the $10nl tables too.

Fun

Been reading hands really well lately. Playing 2 or 3 tables helps.

Well my bracket got torn to shreds in the first round. But that's not going to stop me from making more predictions!

Orlando > Boston.
LA > Houston.
Denver > Dallas.
and the Cavs will beat Atlanta, verily.

I'm gonna go 4-0.

Wellp, I've finally jumped up to $2/4nl for good. It's taken a dozen tries, but I'm pretty set at those tables now. Last month I 2 tabled $4nl, and this month the plan is to 3 table it. I honestly don't expect to play anymore tables than that in the future. Poker is more fun when I'm not just coasting on autodrive. I enjoy thinking through every hand, and looking at every opponent and figuring out how to exploit them. I'm still obviously learning, but I think I can hold my own against most of the regs; a few of them are still giving me probs, but that is just more opportunities to learn.

Here are my stats for the first 15k hands I've played there this year. I realize it's a small sample, and I could break even for the next 60k. So this isn't really a brag pic. I'm simply happy that I've busted out of the $2nl rut I was in for a year.

My goal for the next few months is to average 1k hands per day, and study my opponents as much as I can. The leap to $3/6nl from $2/4nl (a 50% increase) is much smaller than from $1/2nl to $2/4nl (a 100% increase.) So hopefully it won't take me too long to play those tables too. Just gonna take a lot of hard work and focus.

Why can't people in sports interviews ever answer the question asked? It's an epidemic, and no one ever calls them out on it.

In the 3rd quarter interview with Michael Curry of the Pistons, he is asked "With your season possibly over in one more quarter, how much of what you say to your team is emotional, and how much tactical?"

His response? "We just gotta go out and play hard."

...

Is this Rick Carlisle or Jim Carrey?

Well my horses are doing terribly. Dallas looked great in their first game (though awful so far in the 2nd.) I'm amazed at how many blowouts there have already been. That's a rare thing in the playoffs usually, but Miami got owned by 30, Denver won by nearly 30, Houston won by 27, and the Cavs won by 20. Not very interesting to watch, when the game is over by the end of the 3rd. But the Boston/Chicago series is turning into a gem. I really don't see Boston making it out of the 2nd round. Hell, Chicago might get em.

Speaking of blowouts, whats the deal with players complaining about foul calls when they are ahead by 30 in the 4th quarter. I saw Kleiza of Denver whine about a call with 5 minutes left, and most of the garbage players in the game. Who does that?! Aside from the fact that it's totally meaningless, it's also counterproductive, since you will again see these refs later in the playoffs. I wouldn't needlessly antagonize them while up by 30 points and a few minutes to go.

Does anyone actually watch Tyler Perry's shows?

Here's my bracket for the playoffs that start in a few days. I'm gonna go 13-0.

I've only played like 10k hands this month. Been taking it easy poker wise, though spending a lot more time doing music. Sorry for the lack of posts.

I went down to Wheeling a few weeks ago and played poker for 2 days. It was a frustrating affair. They only had $2nl tables going...nothing higher. It's quite boring playing those stakes live. I brought about a grand with me to play with, and I ended up losing it all. Mostly due to coolers and bad beats, but I gave away a few hundred just straight up gambling too. Whatever.

I just purchased this from the AP shop with some of my fpps. It's the best tv I've seen them carry (other than those 60+ inch ones, but that's way too big for my basement.) I hope everything goes smoothly with this TV. The last one was a nightmare.

Not much else going on.