I'm so sick of this losing streak. I also hate how inexplicable it all is...how it's impossible to make people understand just how bad a streak I'm on. If you don't live through it, you'll simply assume it's a lot like the streaks YOU experience, maybe a little worse. I don't know what other people experience, but I know what I experience. This is novel. This is like nothing I've ever seen before, or even read about. I've never heard anyone report this many beats in a row, and I'm fairly certain that most people would quit playing if it weren't their job. Hell, I wanna quit playing.
I'm gonna try and use some stats and hand histories to show just how bad my recent sessions have been. (This on top of losing for 3 weeks straight.) And all the beats I've posted prior.
The last 6 flops I've seen with KK have been [Ad 5c 9h], [7d Ah 6c], [7d As Ad], [Ah Tc 7c] [Ac Jc 2h] and a flop without an ace. The flop without an ace was what I posted previously where the flop was 664, and I ended up losing to 77 which hit his 2 outer.
If you had any notions that you've experienced runs this bad, do you still have them? If so, here are my last 5 sets.
STAGE #253425627: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $1 - 2005-12-24 00:28:20 (ET)
Table: CHARLOTTE (Real Money) Seat #8 is the dealer
Seat 8 - SLIMJIM43 ($408.35 in chips)
Seat 3 - SBF ($156.25 in chips)
Seat 4 - FRYER TUCK ($245.85 in chips)
Seat 5 - DRAGONYSTIC ($405.70 in chips)
Seat 6 - JZNICK ($203.30 in chips)
SBF - Posts small blind $1
FRYER TUCK - Posts big blind $2
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to DRAGONYSTIC [10d 10s]
DRAGONYSTIC - Raises $8 to $8
JZNICK - Folds
SLIMJIM43 - Folds
SBF - Raises $15 to $16
FRYER TUCK - Folds
DRAGONYSTIC - Calls $8
*** FLOP *** [10c 2s Jh]
SBF - Checks
DRAGONYSTIC - Checks
*** TURN *** [10c 2s Jh] [5h]
SBF - Bets $22
DRAGONYSTIC - Calls $22
*** RIVER *** [10c 2s Jh 5h] [Kd]
SBF - All-In $118.25
DRAGONYSTIC - Folds
SBF - returned ($118.25) : not called
*** SHOW DOWN ***
SBF - Does not show
SBF Collects $75 from main pot
He said he had KK, and I'm positive he had it.
STAGE #253477591: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $0.50 - 2005-12-24 01:56:09 (ET)
Table: RADFORD (Real Money) Seat #5 is the dealer
Seat 5 - LUTE83 ($50.50 in chips)
Seat 6 - DRAGONYSTIC ($193.10 in chips)
Seat 9 - DNS0312 ($40.80 in chips)
Seat 1 - GRYGHEN ($88.35 in chips)
Seat 2 - TRIGGER76 ($203.30 in chips)
Seat 3 - IMAKEYAHUMP ($213.15 in chips)
DRAGONYSTIC - Posts small blind $0.50
DNS0312 - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to DRAGONYSTIC [Jc Js]
GRYGHEN - Raises $5 to $5
TRIGGER76 - Folds
IMAKEYAHUMP - Folds
LUTE83 - Folds
DRAGONYSTIC - Calls $4.50
DNS0312 - Calls $4
*** FLOP *** [6s 8c 5c]
DRAGONYSTIC - Bets $7
DNS0312 - Folds
GRYGHEN - Calls $7
*** TURN *** [6s 8c 5c] [9c]
DRAGONYSTIC - Bets $11
GRYGHEN - Calls $11
*** RIVER *** [6s 8c 5c 9c] [Jh]
DRAGONYSTIC - Bets $22
GRYGHEN - Calls $22
Again, lose with an overpair, this time I hit the set...but he hit his draw. My redraw doesn't hit though.
STAGE #252813803: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $1 - 2005-12-23 02:46:48 (ET)
Table: PINNACLE DR. (Real Money) Seat #8 is the dealer
Seat 8 - DRAGONYSTIC ($371.05 in chips)
Seat 9 - SRR2449 ($126.85 in chips)
Seat 1 - HOOPCOACH15 ($56.80 in chips)
Seat 2 - DIRTDIGGER ($394.50 in chips)
Seat 4 - XENA777 ($176.15 in chips)
Seat 6 - KRNXBEACHBUM ($165.05 in chips)
SRR2449 - Posts small blind $1
HOOPCOACH15 - Posts big blind $2
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to DRAGONYSTIC [3h 3d]
DIRTDIGGER - Calls $2
XENA777 - Folds
KRNXBEACHBUM - Folds
DRAGONYSTIC - Calls $2
SRR2449 - Folds
HOOPCOACH15 - Checks
*** FLOP *** [7c 8s 10s]
HOOPCOACH15 - Checks
DIRTDIGGER - Checks
DRAGONYSTIC - Checks
*** TURN *** [7c 8s 10s] [Ad]
HOOPCOACH15 - Checks
DIRTDIGGER - Checks
DRAGONYSTIC - Checks
*** RIVER *** [7c 8s 10s Ad] [3c]
HOOPCOACH15 - Bets $4
DIRTDIGGER - Folds
DRAGONYSTIC - Raises $10 to $10
HOOPCOACH15 - Raises $16 to $20
DRAGONYSTIC - Calls $10
HOOPCOACH15 - Shows [9s 6s] (Straight, six to ten)
DRAGONYSTIC - Shows [3h 3d] (Three of a kind, threes)
HOOPCOACH15 Collects $44.65 from main pot
This one I was be at the whole way. Sweet.
STAGE #253448967: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $0.50 - 2005-12-24 01:05:14 (ET)
Table: DURHAM (Real Money) Seat #3 is the dealer
Seat 3 - BANANAJACK ($24.05 in chips)
Seat 4 - FARCANAL ($15.25 in chips)
Seat 5 - JZNICK ($168.90 in chips)
Seat 6 - PIGO ($153.83 in chips)
Seat 7 - GYPSY1 ($79 in chips)
Seat 1 - DRAGONYSTIC ($203.60 in chips)
FARCANAL - Posts small blind $0.50
JZNICK - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to DRAGONYSTIC [7h 7d]
PIGO - Folds
GYPSY1 - Folds
DRAGONYSTIC - Calls $1
BANANAJACK - Calls $1
FARCANAL - Calls $0.50
JZNICK - Checks
*** FLOP *** [9s 2h 6d]
FARCANAL - Checks
JZNICK - Bets $2
DRAGONYSTIC - Calls $2
BANANAJACK - Folds
FARCANAL - Calls $2
*** TURN *** [9s 2h 6d] [7c]
FARCANAL - Checks
JZNICK - Bets $6
DRAGONYSTIC - Raises $13 to $13
FARCANAL - All-In $12.25
JZNICK - Calls $7
*** RIVER *** [9s 2h 6d 7c] [10d]
JZNICK - Checks
DRAGONYSTIC - Checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
FARCANAL - Shows [10h 8c] (Straight, six to ten)
JZNICK - Mucks
DRAGONYSTIC - Shows [7h 7d] (Three of a kind, sevens)
DRAGONYSTIC Collects $1.50 from side pot-1
FARCANAL Collects $44.35 from main pot
Fantastic!
STAGE #253456370: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $0.50 - 2005-12-24 01:17:36 (ET)
Table: DURHAM (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dealer
Seat 2 - SBF ($97.90 in chips)
Seat 5 - JZNICK ($152.30 in chips)
Seat 7 - GYPSY1 ($65.95 in chips)
Seat 8 - IRONMAN10 ($104.75 in chips)
Seat 1 - DRAGONYSTIC ($206.10 in chips)
JZNICK - Posts small blind $0.50
GYPSY1 - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to DRAGONYSTIC [9s 9c]
IRONMAN10 - Calls $1
DRAGONYSTIC - Calls $1
SBF - Folds
JZNICK - Calls $0.50
GYPSY1 - Checks
*** FLOP *** [9h 10c 5h]
JZNICK - Checks
GYPSY1 - Checks
IRONMAN10 - Bets $3
DRAGONYSTIC - Raises $9 to $9
JZNICK - Folds
GYPSY1 - Folds
IRONMAN10 - Calls $6
*** TURN *** [9h 10c 5h] [4h]
IRONMAN10 - Bets $3
DRAGONYSTIC - Calls $3
*** RIVER *** [9h 10c 5h 4h] [3s]
IRONMAN10 - Bets $16
DRAGONYSTIC - Folds
IRONMAN10 - returned ($16) : not called
*** SHOW DOWN ***
IRONMAN10 - Does not show
IRONMAN10 Collects $26.60 from main pot
Another chaser who pays 2:1 on the flop (pot sized raise) out of position to hit his draw. He wins nothing with it, but my spirit gets a little more crushed.
There were no intermediary sets in between these sets. Those HH's are the last 5 sets I've hit. I've hit trips a few times, but each of my last 5 sets have lost.
I could show even more. I could show the last 30 nut draws I have had, but unfortunately PT doesn't have an easy to way to sort draws, only flushes and straights that hit! So I'd have to search through thousands of hands to find the ones where I hit a draw. Those numbers would be just as sickening.
I also did some analysis on how often I'm flopping sets in the first place (let alone how often they are holding up.) My last 139 pocket pairs have hit 14 sets. With KK through JJ I've hit 6 sets in my last 73 tries. (Sets are 1:7.51 if you didn't know.) I'm hitting at a 1:10 clip. And if I had more energy to do this, I'd look back at my past 300+ pocket pairs, I'm almost certain they have faired just as bad, if not worse.
2 pair is holding up 64.61% of the time this month and three of a kind 69.23%; which is excrutiatingly low. To get an idea of how low that is, I looked up some numbers for a large sample of hands over the past year. Over the past 77,000 hands 2 pair has held up 71.46% of the time, and three of a kind 78.59%. Those numbers may appear close (comparing 64/69 to 71/78,) but in the world of poker, a few percentages are actually very big. 6-10% is huge! That means I'm losing 1 additional hand (on top of the normal beats) for every 10 times I get three of a kind, for the whole month of December.
I could probably dig up some more stats, but frankly I'm sick of it all, and I'm sure if anyone reads this blog they're sick of me bitching about beats too. (I'm just as sick of it as you.) And sadly, getting sick of something is slowly turning from a metaphor into a reality. The longer this streak goes on, the sicker I feel. The more I hate poker. I leave almost every session in the red, with a handful more of beats, and a fist full of anger.
I'm reminded of a quote about the difference between good players and great players, that those great players can still play good poker through the worst of it. I think I've continued playing as close to an A game as possible through all of this, but like another wise saying says "every man has his breaking point." I dunno where mine is precisely. I'm not sure how much more I can take. But I have a new found respect for those 20 year pros who have seen it all. You have to play a lot of hands to experience the very worst poker has to offer, and I'm sure every top level player has had to go through shit like this. I wish poker books talked about these kinds of things more than the play of starting hands on selected flops.