Well the month of August is now over for me. Atleast the poker part is. I normally don't do monthly reports, but this was not a normal month of poker for me. I played 31,229 hands in August, which is a new record for me. And this was also my first month getting rakeback. I consider this to be a maiden month of sorts. I plan on playing 30k hands a month, every month, from this point out. Time to get back on track!

If you're wondering about my stats, they weren't as good as I had hoped, but they were respectable. My BB/100 was 1.64, which is abysmal for the caliber of players I'm up against, but I was playing 2.85 tables on average for the entire month, and I ran poorly a lot of the time.

This was my last all in hand I played for the month, and pretty much sums up my month nicely. So to still be up about 3k for the month (after bonuses/rb) is fine by me. I look forward to a month where I run GOOD...or even average would be nice.

Tough Hand of the Day 8.29.06

STAGE #436961312: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $1 - 2006-08-29 21:47:15 (ET)
Table: RUBY DR. (Real Money) Seat #8 is the dealer
Seat 8 - MARLENE24 ($254.73 in chips)
Seat 3 - 10SWILD ($33.01 in chips)
Seat 4 - SKANKBOY1 ($221.51 in chips)
Seat 5 - SYNODIC ($176.50 in chips)
Seat 6 - ANIX83 ($113.90 in chips)
Seat 7 - BUTTCRACKJAK ($40.05 in chips)
10SWILD - Posts small blind $0.50
SKANKBOY1 - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SYNODIC [7h 7c]
SYNODIC - Raises $3 to $3
ANIX83 - Folds
BUTTCRACKJAK - Calls $3
MARLENE24 - Calls $3
10SWILD - Folds
SKANKBOY1 - Calls $2
*** FLOP *** [4h 6s 5d]
SKANKBOY1 - Checks
SYNODIC - Bets $6

I catch a nice flop with my 7's, though in any well coordinated flop I'm on alert. I put in a continuation/probe bet to see how I stand and hopefully thin the field out a bit. I have a vulnerable pair, and an ok draw, 2 more reasons not to check here.

BUTTCRACKJAK - Folds
MARLENE24 - Raises $13 to $13
SKANKBOY1 - Calls $13

This puts me in a pretty tough spot. 1) It's very unlikely my hand is good. Marlene may semi bluff here with a straight draw, but I would expect a larger raise if she was on that kind of a hand. This looks like a value raise that wants action. 2) Skankboy calls a raise and a reraise. A play which a lot of poor players make with the nuts. (I'm not saying Skank is a poor player, just that I see this move often at that $1nl tables.) Skank is actually a pretty solid player most of the time, so I'm not sure where he is at here. I'd expect a raise if he had a big hand or a fold if he was on a draw, $13 is a lot to pay with just a draw, and why risk a card coming off if you've got 2 pair or a set.

I feel like I'm getting priced in though, it's $7 to call, and the pot was $40 at this point. I'm gonna call, and play cautiously from this point out.

SYNODIC - Calls $7
*** TURN *** [4h 6s 5d] [7s]

Well this card certainly makes things interesting. I now beat a flopped 2 pair/set, but of course I'm still toast to the obvious straight.

SKANKBOY1 - Checks
SYNODIC - Checks
MARLENE24 - Bets $29
SKANKBOY1 - Folds

It's time to make a tough decision. The good news is, if I'm wrong, I have 10 outs. Plus I feel there arent' many hands Marlene could have here with an 8 or 3 in it. 78 is what I'm worried most about. 88 is also in the back of my head, but I'm less worried about that hand. I'm actually putting Marlene on a flopped set at this point...and I also believe she is value betting it, putting me on an overpair. I might play aces/kings this way, and I think that is what read she has on me.

SYNODIC - Calls $29
*** RIVER *** [4h 6s 5d 7s] [2d]

Thankfully the river is a blank. There are already plenty of variables in this hand to be thinking about.

SYNODIC - Checks

Now you may think to yourself "if you think your hand is good here, why not bet?" But if you consider how a bet here plays out, it is obviously a bad choice. If I bet out now, it will look like I have the straight, so if Marlene has the 8, she'll call or raise, so I'm out money there. If she doesn't have the straight, a call is very difficult to make. But if I check it, she might consider betting more hands than she's willing to call with. Especially if she thinks I'm on AA or KK. Or she might have a very odd hand that she now thinks she needs to bluff with in order to win the pot.

MARLENE24 - Bets $40

This is perfectly in line with a straight. It's a good bet by Marlene. I was agonizing over this bet. It conveys very little information, if any. $40 is what she'd bet with an 8, a value bet with a set or if she was bluffing.

So in this situation, I like to think about some technical data that I CAN quantify; like the pot odds. The pot is $106.50 (after the rake.) So a $40 bet gives me 2.66:1 odds to call. So I don't even have to be right half the time here in order to call and show a profit. (Quick note, I didn't know the odds were precisely 2.66:1 while in the hand, I just quickly glanced at the numbers, and went with 2.5:1 odds.)

I also couldn't shake the feeling that Marlene was just value betting a good hand she made on the flop. I dunno why I felt this way, but that was my instinct, and I was getting decent odds too, so I called.

SYNODIC - Calls $40
*** SHOW DOWN ***
MARLENE24 - Shows [6d 6c] (Three of a kind, sixes)
SYNODIC - Shows [7h 7c] (Three of a kind, sevens)
SYNODIC Collects $186.50 from main pot

I got pretty lucky here. Both to hit my card, and make the right read.

Tough day thus far. Not really a big deal, I don't think I could have made any different decisions (and been happy about it.)

There is one thing I wanted to write about though. I got involved in a few hands with this one player, and he ended up getting the best of me (thanks to a 3 outer.) But the story leading up to that is what I wanted to write about.

First, consider this hand against iplayragstoo. He comes in for a 3x raise with AKo and I call in the SB with 56s. This is marginal, to be sure.

The flop comes 5h2h2x. And I check/call $6 on the flop. He could easily have an overpair here, or just overcards, I wasn't sure which. So I decided to just call and reevaluate the turn.

9c hits the turn and I check to him and he bets $8? At this point he has $22 in his stack, so this is a very peculiar bet. If he had an overpair, you'd think he'd want to shut out a draw and just put the rest of his chips in. I really didn't think he had an overpair, so I decide to check/raise the rest of my chips in, and he calls with AK.

Afterwards he has words for me. But consider everything about this hand. He put in $3 with the best of it, and $28 with much the worst of it. Not only that, but he had every opportunity to get away from his hand cheaply. There's nothing wrong with following up the preflop raise with a flop bet, but after that, he's giving away money hoping to get lucky.

Is this horrible play by me? I dunno, I felt good about it, but he didn't.

So then we get involved in this hand, where I have him dead to 3 outs (the case ace, and 2 8's.)
My equity in this pot is 0.814, about as good as you can do in a 3 way all in.

He gets lucky and catches another 8 to fill up, and drags the pot. He then says its "karma" and that I deserved to lose.

This may be emotions talking, I don't know the guy particularly well, aside from his god awful play. But in the 2 hands I was involved with him, I had $4 go in with the worst hand, and about $75 go in with the best of it. I really don't know what his thoughts are on karma, but it was my understanding that karma means pretty much getting what you deserve based on your actions.

If that is the case, both those pots should be mine, no?

::

The day got unfortunately worse after that. One of the tables I was on got down to 4 handed and I raised it up UTG (or cutoff, if you prefer) with 77. The BB called, a well rounded player who is one of the only people I respect in the .50/1NL tables, and I catch a really nice flop of 974 with 2 clubs. He bets out and I raise him...to which he reraises. Uh oh. He has 3-4 likely hands. 99, 44, 97 or 94; the last 2 being more longshots. I could have just called, but I didn't want the board to freeze him up if he happened to have 44 or two pair. A club or low card might stop him from getting broke. I only lose to 99, so I shove, and he turns over 99. $375 pot.

I dunno if there was anyway to get away from this hand or if I should just take my lumps and move on. But I felt it was very possible for him to have 99, even likely! But I still got my chips in. Does that make it a bad play? Or should I just lament the cold deck. I'm kind of in the middle right now. I feel like it was a cold deck, but I still had a chance to not get broke. I dunno, if he has 44, this post would be far different, so who knows.

Well it took forever, but it was worth it. Sometimes you just wanna quantify your bad luck. If for no other reason that to make yourself feel better. So here it is, the data from every single all in I've been involved in for the month of August (where the pot was over $50.)

1) I'm not running as bad in my all-ins as I had suspected. Totals?

In the all-ins I won, the difference in EV was $893.23. (This is calculated by subtracting what I won in the pot from what my EV percentage was.) This is to be expected of course. Any time you win an all in, so long as your opponent wasn't drawing dead, you get more from the pot than can be expected in the long run (since you will be outdrawn from time to time.)

In the all-ins I lost, the difference in EV was $1202.

So the grand total for the month is that I'm running about $309 worse than can be expected in the "long run."

In any case, $309 isn't too bad, though I'd prefer I have that money than not. Ha.

Interesting piece of data #2. I won 50 all-ins this month. I had the best hand 49 out of 50 times!! The only all-in I won this month where I had a -EV was a preflop all in with AK v a small pair. Now you may think this is a sign that I'm playing tight. But actually it's just a sign that I'm never sucking out on people when I'm all in with the worst of it.

I was all in with the worst of it 25 times, I won once (the aforementioned coinflipish all-in.)

Booooo!

The largest swing in equity came in this hand.
The smallest swing in equity came in this hand, which I find to be hilarious. At first I thought I was drawing dead. But actually, I have 0.002 EV when all the money went in. Which is worth 46 cents of the $227.56 pot. I have 1 win, if the runners come Kd/Qd. How sweet that would have been.

Well I've spent enough time on this. Gotta hit the tables now.

I've had a tough time winning all ins this month, but after thinking about it for a while, I realized I may just be paranoid. SOooo, I'm going through every single all in for the month (that's 27,000 hands to weed through folks!) I'm gonna calculate my equity for each all in, and how much I won as a result, and see the difference. Maybe I'm getting screwed, or maybe I'm just not getting my money in well enough. Or worse yet, maybe I'm winning as much as I should, but losing out elsewhere. In any case, this should prove to be very interesting (and tedious.) I hope to have an interesting post in a few days. But it may take longer than that.

I got to play in the $100k guaranteed again this week. And, as it goes in all high buy in tourneys I play in, I got destroyed. For the first hour I stole my way up to $3600. I had one decent hand; AA, which won the blinds. Other than that, I was just looking for weakness.

I was pretty confident going into the second hour. I was on a tight/passive table (aside from one laggy player) and thought I could work my way up to around 6-10k if things went well, without having to showdown a hand. That plan went to hell when I saw a cheap flop in the SB with 63s. The board came A63 and I lost to the UTG limper who had A6. Thankfully I had a good read and check/called the turn and river. So I only dumped 35% of my stack.

I then stole my way back up around 4k, only to lose a chunk of that to a shortstack all in preflop. I had JJ, he had A8. Guess what the flop was.

That dropped me to 2k and the blinds were then 100/200 with an ante, so I was pretty much looking for an all in hand. That hand never came. Instead I saw a free flop in the BB with Q2, flop Q43. Got all my chips in and lost to LP guy with QJ. The thing which sucks most about that last hand, was after I bet out, and he raised, I was positive I was beat. But didn't have enough chips to fold. I really hate tournament poker. I look forward to one day playing in an event where you start with a very large stack.

::

I've been running well lately, if you don't count the weekends. Weekend poker is killing me. I realize this is only a short term fluctuation, normally weekends are the most lucrative. But for the past month, they've been my downfall.

I had 3 all ins yesterday. QQ v 88 all in preflop, KKK v pair/draw and AA v tp/backdoor, lost all 3 of em. I think I was outkicked with top pair 8 or 9 times. I had 2 straight flush draws, both missed. I ran into a rivered flush half a dozen times. And finally, had AA, KK and QQ all losers for the night combined. It was not pretty. I still feel good about my play though, and though that thought is solace, I'm still annoyed that I'm not up much much more for this month. I've put in over 25,000 hands so far, and excluding bonuses, I've only made about $950. Weak.

Given the streaks of bad luck compared to good luck though, I'll take it. I've only had one hot streak for the whole month. (I ran up $750 in about an hour.) But have suffered 2 or 3 rough spells (one right after the $750 upswing, where I handed every penny back and then some. Score!)

So all in all, to be up $950 (and another $2000 in bonuses/rakeback) I'm happy.

::

On a completely different topic. My favorite blogger whom I refuse to link to, Iggy, is getting a job! He says he's "burnt out and bored."

I sympathize and understand. But hope this doesn't mean he's gonna stop ubering it up. I think everyone in the poker blogosphere wishes him the best of luck in the 9-5 world. I know I do!

GOOD LUCK IGGY!!

::

On a somewhat tangential topic, that of boredom with poker, I feel much differently about the game then I used to. I watch a lot of poker on tv, and I follow what goes on with many of the top players (and even the mid level pros.) I once was filled with wonderment and perhaps even envy; especially when you see one take down a nice tournament score. But now when I see these players, aside from the very top players who do well consistently (and hell, maybe even some of them) I feel bad for them. I genuinely pity them! Especially a young "up and coming" kid who feels like a WPT final table means he's good. They take home $100k-$400k with a top 5 finish, and everyone who watches thinks "wow, that must be nice!"

But you don't hear the follow up stories. And I'm pretty sure there's a good reason for that. These players are not making more final tables, and I have a feeling many of them are trying like hell. It's pretty easy to go 10 events in a row without cashing. There's 50-100k right there. Minus taxes for your original winnings, travel expenses, perhaps a rash purchase of something new, and BAM...your quarter of a million dollar score is gone and you still don't know how to play poker! Worse yet, you think you're good anyways!

This is where the ontake of debt begins. A loan to cover a buy in or someone to stake you. Afterall, you beat those players before, you can do it again! But no, you can't...and won't.

Now I don't know if this exact scene has unfolded or not, but I'd wager that it has in some form or another, countless times.

It doesn't even have to happen in a tournament. I see people at the tables everyday who are on a hotstreak, run up a few thousand dollars, go up to stakes that they can't properly be rolled for (or properly skilled to play) and bust out. These people end up asking me "for just $10" please!!!

Some of these people have won large online tournaments...I've checked the pokerdb. But here they are, broke, asking anyone "for just $10, I'll pay you back double, I swear. I'm good, I won a mtt last year for $15 grand."

Poker is as cruel as life is. And often, as boring as life is. I'm not sure where I was going with this, but I think my overall point is that poker is not what it seems. People think they can control what happens at the table. mmm, no. You can't stop losing if that is what is meant to be. No matter how skilled you are, no matter what has happened in the past, the best you can do is get your money in good...beyond that, you're at the mercy of cruel fate.

In this years WSOP broadcasts, Matusow says something about how the new breed of young players trying to become pros don't know what they're getting themselves into. They don't know what it's like to run bad, and how to handle it. Though it's ironic for him to say that, it's true nonetheless. I laugh everytime I see some new kid on tv talking about how he wants to be a pro.

::

Speaking of TV poker, has anyone seen the PPT broadcasts. Good lord are the announcers annoying as fuck. Mark Seif is a damn good player, but he's as awful a poker announcer as I've ever seen. And his partner, whateverthefuck his name is, is just as terrible.

I kind of like the idea, atleast in principle, of an all professional series of tournaments. But they don't seem to be sticking to their own mantra. I saw Mimi Rogers in one of them!!! WTF is that? Being a celebrity these days entitles you to pretty much anything. There are also sponsor exemptions, so other donks can get in the tourneys too.

It's a good idea, but they'd be better off if they really just had all pros at the tables. I don't wanna watch Mimi Rogers play poker. If I did, I would watch Celebrity Poker Showdown (or just any $25NL table on Party would suffice too.)

Time to get back to the tables.

Tough Hand of the Day 08.21.06

This one is a doozy.

STAGE #430904521: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $1 - 2006-08-21 21:11:57 (ET)
Table: FREDERICKSBURG (Real Money) Seat #5 is the dealer
Seat 5 - LILJOEY2PAIR ($114.05 in chips)
Seat 6 - SYNODIC ($232.50 in chips)
Seat 8 - UCJAMIE ($111.40 in chips)
Seat 2 - DA_BAUM ($39.30 in chips)
Seat 3 - HAEMATO ($200 in chips)
Seat 4 - VASQUIRE ($80.40 in chips)
SYNODIC - Posts small blind $0.50
DA_BAUM - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SYNODIC [Ks Kc]
HAEMATO - Folds
VASQUIRE - Raises $3 to $3

Vasquire comes in for a raise, and I don't have a strong read on him. He seemed like your standard donkey. 53 VPIP, 19 PFR. So I'm not really putting him on a hand yet...he could have a lot of hands.

LILJOEY2PAIR - Folds
SYNODIC - Raises $8.50 to $9

Standard reraise to see where I'm at and isolate.

DA_BAUM - Folds
VASQUIRE - Calls $6

Now his range is narrowed just a bit. He atleast has a hand he's willing to raise and call a reraise with. But he's very loose, so he still could have quite a few hands.

*** FLOP *** [10c 7s 6h]
SYNODIC - Bets $10
VASQUIRE - Calls $10

I lead out with a normal continuation bet. I'm careful not to put in too much, because I want action if he caught a piece of that. With a $10 bet, he might think I'm following up with AK or AQs.

*** TURN *** [10c 7s 6h] [9c]
SYNODIC - Checks

This is a rough turn, and I check it to him. I'm out of position and I feel like I'm probably way ahead or way behind. I also wanna see how he reacts to this card before I put in any more money. (Note: Betting here is probably a better play.)

VASQUIRE - Bets $16

This bet says "I have the straight." And I was ready to fold my hand. But I couldn't figure out what hand he could raise preflop, call a reraise, and then call a flop bet that has an 8 in it. 88 maybe.

Here's the thing about weak players though. As I wrote so in depth about in my last post, they LOOOOVE to slowplay. Does he really have the straight here? I dunno, but if he does, he'd probably check it. Or at the least, bet an amount he thought would get called. $16 is a strong bet, and I just showed weakness.

I feel there is a chance he is trying to muscle me. And I make a call.

The plan is to see a river, check it to him, and reevaluate if he bets.

*** RIVER *** [10c 7s 6h 9c] [3c]

The river brings the third club. This is actually a good card for me! If he has the straight, this will likely slow him down and I might get a free showdown.

SYNODIC - Checks
VASQUIRE - All-In $45.40

This was a puzzling bet. His turn bet represented the straight, but now he is trying to represent the flush. This doesn't make a lot of sense. I felt that if he had the straight, he wouldn't shove all his chips in here when the third club hits. Even if he doesn't think I could have 2 clubs, it's another card that is going to scare me and make me less likely to call...so a value bet is much more in order.

Plus I just can't shake the feeling that he is trying to muscle me after I showed weakness. I did check the turn and river afterall...which is another reason an all in on this card makes little sense. If he had a big hand, why would he move in after I check to him twice. I can't have a hand I like.

SYNODIC - Calls $45.40
*** SHOW DOWN ***
VASQUIRE - Shows [9s Ad] (One pair, nines)
SYNODIC - Shows [Ks Kc] (One pair, kings)
SYNODIC Collects $158.80 from main pot

This was a very satisfying pot to take down. Hand analysis can often overlook something small. He still could have had a better hand than me, so I feel fortunate I made the right read. It's also nice to be analyzing a hand I WON for a change.

This is going to be a quick stream of conciousness post about luck.

I've read a lot of blog posts today, and for some reason many of them had a discussion on luck. People who are running bad are talking about their bad luck, and people who are running well are talking about how mindless the people are who say "I'm so unlucky."

Everyone should know the standard way luck works in poker. For a given hand, there's A LOT of luck, for a given session, there's a large amount of luck, for a given month of sessions, there's a mild amount of luck, and for a year, well, there's a little bit of luck, but not enough to turn a winner into a loser or vice versa.

That's only partly true though. With any series of random numbers/cards, there are going to be some odd happenings. The worst (and best) part about luck in poker is the constant possibility that you will experience something you should not experience.

It is "winning the lottery" so to speak. Most people on earth will never do this...it is a mathematical long shot. But still, some people will win. That is to say, some people will experience the very extremes of luck (good or bad) and for just a brief moment in time, that person may be the luckiest or unluckiest person on the planet.

So don't be so quick to dismiss a story about the hardships of poker, only to blame it on poor play or poor decision making. It has surely happened that a few good players, from time to time, have gone on the most pronounced losing streaks that, for no other reason then the luck of the draw, they were wiped out of their entire bankroll. Even if they practiced frugal money management skills and followed every cardinal rule regarding their bankroll.

This idea scares me to no end.

Is there a statistician in the house?

I ended last night with KK running into AA twice in a row. How did I start today? With KK running into AA two more times. First in this hand, where my opponent didn't have nearly enough chips to get me to fold. Then shortly after that in this hands against Fieldmob again!! Sick.

Tough Hand of the Day 8.19.06

Actually there were several tough hands today. It was a crazy day all around. I put in 2000 hands because I couldn't play the last 2 days (ugh.) So I had to make up for the time I missed.

I saw AA v KK 5 times today. I was involved in 3 of those hands. I had AA v KK all in before the flop and won a $440 pot. Then I had KK v AA in 2 other hands. The last one cost me about $70 but I got away from it. And the first one went as follows:

STAGE #429431392: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $1 - 2006-08-19 22:19:53 (ET)
Table: CHICO (Real Money) Seat #5 is the dealer
Seat 5 - SYNODIC ($382 in chips)
Seat 7 - RUNNINGPONY ($138.55 in chips)
Seat 9 - FIELDMOB ($184 in chips)
Seat 1 - TTWD63 ($100.80 in chips)
Seat 2 - TITANT ($204.85 in chips)
Seat 3 - DRICK82 ($61.25 in chips)
RUNNINGPONY - Posts small blind $0.50
FIELDMOB - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SYNODIC [Kd Kh]
TTWD63 - Calls $1
TITANT - Folds
DRICK82 - Raises $3 to $3
SYNODIC - Raises $9 to $9

Anytime I reraise preflop, it is 3x what the prior raise was. That way my hands stay as concealed as possible. (Though I'm sure there's little doubt I have some kind of hand.)

RUNNINGPONY - Folds
FIELDMOB - Raises $19 to $20

Fieldmob is a tightwad multitabler, so I usually only pick on him (her?) in 1 on 1 pots. But here she is putting in a third raise with several other people in the pot. There's pretty much only 3 hands he could possibly have. AA, QQ or a very unlikely AK.

To make matters even easier for me...

TTWD63 - Folds
DRICK82 - All-In(Raise) $58.25 to $61.25

Now that Drick is all in, I have 2 people who are representing a huge hand. I was glad to see this, because I didn't want to get broke against Fieldmob. But in multiway pots, there's a lot less shenanigans. I'm sure someone has AA here, so I dump my hand and only lose $9.

SYNODIC - Folds
FIELDMOB - Calls $41.25

Field and Drick turn their hands over, and they have AA and the case kings respectively. (KK having a 2.06% chance of winning. ouch!)

*** FLOP *** [4d 10d 9d]
*** TURN *** [4d 10d 9d] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [4d 10d 9d 4s] [2s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DRICK82 - Shows [Kc Ks] (Two Pair, kings and fours)
FIELDMOB - Shows [Ad As] (Two Pair, aces and fours)
FIELDMOB Collects $130 from main pot

I don't think my fold is anything special, but it's nice to lose so little in a spot where I could easily get broke.

You Slowplay Because You're Terrible

Slowplaying is the worst 'tool' in most poker players arsenals. I get slowplayed several dozen times a day with the oddest hands. Some people slowplay tptk, some people slowplay bottom 2 pair with straight/flush draw possibilites on the board, even still, some people slowplay the idiot end of straights. These people are losing tons of money, and this post is NOT intended to help them. No one can help donkeys. Rather, this post is just my own poking of fun at these morons.

For the record, I virtually never slowplay. And there are so many reasons to not slowplay it boggles the mind that anyone would choose to do so.

Here are some reasons, which I will go through one by one.

1) You miss out on winning a big pot if your opponent has also flopped a hand he is willing to go to the end with. Here is a good example. I flop the nut flush and my opponent bets into me. Fuck slowplaying...I raise him, and hope he has something to come along with me. In this example, my opponent had the flopped flush too. And he did a superb job of not losing more. Most players go broke here. Of course, this is a best case scenario...but that is what you want when you have a big hand. If you slowplay here, you just miss out on more money. And these are the pots you want the most out of.

2) You let people draw for free. Here is a hand I was not involved in where another player flopped a flush. He checks the flop, bets almost nothing on the turn, then is forced to call a large bet on the river when he has been outdrawn. So he put $2 in the pot while ahead, and $8 while behind. This on a hand where he flopped the third nuts. What's the fucking point?

Now I don't meant to rag on his play...but I see this play all day long. I think they must have seen Ivey do this once, and think they should do it everytime they flop a hand.

Now you might say to yourself, after looking at this hand, that he saved himself from losing a big pot, since he got outrdawn on the river. But that is the wrong way to be thinking about poker. You can't play hindsight results oriented poker. You're gonna get outdrawn 1 out of 3 times here. So win a nice pot 2 times and lose as little as possible when you DO get outdrawn.

3) You risk letting the board freeze up your (and your opponents) hand. As a hypothetical, consider a case where you flop top set with TT on a T85 board and your opponent has 88. If you slowplay here, and the runners come anywhere in between a ten and a five, you miss out on making more money, since your opponent is now less likely to put in a lot of money with his hand with all the straight card possibilities. This happens all the time. The runners can easily come 6, 9 or J, 7, making a board of T9865, or JT875. With these kinds of boards, you are more likely to just get called down, even if you are up against a set.

Come out guns blazing against most opponents, and there is no way they are getting away from their hand on the flop. But wait for bad runners to hit (even if they don't turn your hand into a loser) they may turn your hand into a small winner.

This is actually the main reason I bet hard any and every time I have a nice hand on the flop. I don't wanna give my opponent a chance to get away from his hand if scary runners hit.

Here is a good hand to illustrate my point. This hand is obviously a cold deck, and I caught lucky to flop a set of aces against a set of tens...but had I not got all my chips in on the turn, it's likely my opponent would not have gone broke with the river being a J, making an AQJT8 board. Had I the opportunity, I would have gotten it all in on the flop.

4) You make your hand really obvious when you slowplay. This is probably a close second when it comes to reasons why I don't slowplay. How many times have you been in a hand with a 99x flop or AAx flop, and your opponent is just check/calling, only to fire in a large bet on the river. He might as well write his hand on his forehead, because there is little doubt he flopped trips.

In this hand I flop trips and raise it up on the flop, only to get checkraised on the turn. This is a standard "I flopped trips" maneuver from my opponent. And since my kicker is shit, I play defensive and just call down. Had he played it strong from the start, I might have gone broke. (And a lot of opponents WILL go broke.) But this way he gives away his hand, and I can just do my best to lose as little as possible. I almost tossed my hand on the river...but curiosity got the best of me.

Now here is a hand where I flop a monster. Quad jacks. Again I just raise the flop and hope my opponent has a hand. There's a lot of good in this play. First off, your opponent will NEVER think you have the J. People don't raise quads here...cause everyone is head over heels in love with slowplaying. So even if he has just a few high cards, he may call and hope to catch a higher boat. In which case I could win a very nice pot.

5) Your opponents likely suck, and will call you down anyways!

Now this is a mighty good reason not to slowplay. How many times have you been in a hand, and marvelled that your opponent was willing to stay in with 2 undercards/no draw, or the sucker end of a gutshot straight draw on a flush board where he has no flush draw or some other stupid shit. Unless you are playing high stakes, you're playing against a mass of morons. So just bet your good hands!!!

Here is a hand where I flop the nut boat. So I just bet it out from beginning to end and get called down by 4th pair. Not much needs to be said here.

6) Your hand sucks and isn't nearly strong enough to slowplay. Oh lordy do people love to slowplay top pair. I have no idea what the fuck my opponent is doing in this hand. He flops top pair and checks the flop. Then calls my small bet on the turn. Only to fire in a raise on the river when his hand is no longer good.

A lot of players bitch after hands like this, or say "nice catch" etc. I dunno who the fuck told them to slowplay these kinds of hands. But top pair is not a powerhouse. I think I see this happen a dozen times a day. And I scratch my head everytime.

In nearly all instances, betting your good hands will result in winning more money. But if you're any good at poker, you already know this, and if you suck at poker, you'll never listen to this advice, so this post is entirely in vain, but I hope it was enjoyable.

Tough Hand of the Day 8.16.06

This hand is one of my least favorite spots in NL holdem; having a premium pair in the small blind. Being out of position for the entire hand is tough, but there is a secondary reason why I find this spot so difficult. Raises out of the blinds are much more rare (atleast in the games I frequent) so it's difficult to not give away your hand. This kind of raise from other players screams of AA-JJ to me, so when I see it, I'll often gamble with a rag hand hoping to win a nice pot with 2 small pair. I think other players do this as well.

STAGE #427114723: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $1 - 2006-08-16 20:57:15 (ET)
Table: ANN ARBOR (Real Money) Seat #3 is the dealer
Seat 3 - NOOGIE293 ($66.65 in chips)
Seat 5 - SYNODIC ($239.85 in chips)
Seat 6 - BADBOYMIKEY ($40 in chips)
Seat 7 - THECOOLER21 ($234.60 in chips)
Seat 8 - KOLITISKID22 ($40.50 in chips)
Seat 1 - FIELDMOB ($256.73 in chips)
SYNODIC - Posts small blind $0.50
BADBOYMIKEY - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SYNODIC [Kc Kd]
THECOOLER21 - Calls $1
KOLITISKID22 - Folds
FIELDMOB - Folds
NOOGIE293 - Folds

UTG limps and it's folded around to me in the SB with KK. I'm not a fan of slowplaying (I have an interesting post in the works on that topic, but that's for later) so I raise it up.

SYNODIC - Raises $3.50 to $4
BADBOYMIKEY - Folds
THECOOLER21 - Calls $3
*** FLOP *** [6d 6h Qh]

The big blind folds and UTG makes the call. I catch the precarious flop with the pair/flush draw on it.

SYNODIC - Bets $5

Naturally.

THECOOLER21 - Calls $5

This call instantly put me on alert for the hand. There are pretty much only 3 possibilities for this hand. He either flopped the trips or the Q, or is on the flush draw. (There is a small chance too that he could have 55 or 77, but he was aggressive enough that I believe he'd open the pot preflop with any pocket pair, so I wasn't really considering that.)

*** TURN *** [6d 6h Qh] [As]

This turn sucks, and I was already weary of the 6. Another probe bet here would certainly be justified, but I took a more conservative route and checked...I wanted to see a showdown (I could still beat a busted draw and a Q, afterall.)

SYNODIC - Checks
THECOOLER21 - Checks

Now I think he likely does have a Q or the draw. I would expect a bet here from a 6 or an ace.

*** RIVER *** [6d 6h Qh As] [Ac]

The flush didn't come through, and now it looks a bit less likely that my opponent had an ace. Still, I decide to check, just in case he was on the draw and missed, I wanna give him a chance to bluff...and I keep my losses to a minimum if he does have the A or 6.

SYNODIC - Checks
THECOOLER21 - Bets $12

He does indeed bet, about half the pot. I really didn't know where I stood here, but there were enough hands that I could beat, I felt the need to call.

SYNODIC - Calls $12
*** SHOW DOWN ***
THECOOLER21 - Shows [Ah 3h] (Full house, aces full of sixes)
SYNODIC - Shows [Kc Kd] (Two Pair, aces and kings)
THECOOLER21 Collects $40.85 from main pot

So he did have the busted draw, but backdoored the aces to make a boat. I think I played this hand well, but it can be hard to tell in the heat of battle.

Tough Hand of The Day 8.15.06

I had a good day at the tables today, but one hand is bothering me to no end. Here it is.

STAGE #426322603: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $1 - 2006-08-15 19:49:25 (ET)
Table: INSPIRATION DR. (Real Money) Seat #4 is the dealer
Seat 4 - BIGFISH1122 ($110.90 in chips)
Seat 5 - PHOENIX1010 ($257.85 in chips)
Seat 6 - SYNODIC ($206.13 in chips)
Seat 7 - BTMANDO ($248.50 in chips)
Seat 8 - FIELDMOB ($210.55 in chips)
PHOENIX1010 - Posts small blind $0.50
SYNODIC - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SYNODIC [As Kh]
BTMANDO - Folds
FIELDMOB - Folds
BIGFISH1122 - Folds
PHOENIX1010 - Raises $3 to $3.50

Phoenix1010 came in for a raise in the SB. He's shown a willingness to push the envelope in other hands against me, and I've caught him once or twice overplaying hands. Normally I would just let him take the preflop lead and hope to let him trap himself if an A or K hits, but I wanted to define my hand and see how he reacted, since it was just the two of us.

SYNODIC - Raises $10 to $11
PHOENIX1010 - Calls $7.50

He predictably calls and I catch a nice flop.

*** FLOP *** [4s Ac 8c]
PHOENIX1010 - Checks
SYNODIC - Bets $8

This is a standard follow up bet by me, regardless if I hit the flop or not. If I had 77 I'd still bet here.

PHOENIX1010 - Raises $19 to $19

Phoenix raises me, and I wasn't scared in the least. I felt good about my hand, and still assumed I was in the lead. I didn't wanna push him out either, so I just smooth call the raise.

SYNODIC - Calls $11

Sometimes I'll reraise in that spot, to avoid losing my whole stack if I'm at all worried about being up against AA or the like...but like I said, I was sure I was ahead here.

*** TURN *** [4s Ac 8c] [Qh]
PHOENIX1010 - Checks

Phoenix checks to me, and now I'm 99% sure I've got him. Be that as it may, I wasn't putting him on any specific hand. He raised from the SB, so there's a very large range of hands he could be on. I was mildly worried about an odd 2 pair, other than that, I figured I was good. So I put out a smallish value bet.

SYNODIC - Bets $15

This was a bad bet by me. I probably should have bet $25-40. The pot was over $50 at this point. Betting big also narrows the range of possible hands my opponent could have. As it stood, I was pretty sure I had the best hand, but wasn't sure what I had to avoid on the river.

PHOENIX1010 - Calls $15
*** RIVER *** [4s Ac 8c Qh] [10c]

I did not care for this river. I cringed even before any action broke out. Now it looks like Phoenix might have been on a draw. He c/r the flop, an easy semibluff to make with 2 clubs (to represent an ace) then he check/call the turn, which is consistent with a draw. Then this...

PHOENIX1010 - Bets $121

Bah! The pot was about $80, so this is a vast overbet. This is good in a way though...it eliminate a lot of possible hands. He wouldn't put this bet out with a rivered 2 pair, or a set (or KJ if he somehow had that.) So he's either got the flush or nothing in my opinion.

I don't wanna pay off such an obvious flush, but I don't wanna get bluffed off this pot either. It's $80, and if I pick off the bluff, that's another $121 too.

I wish there were special timer clocks in ring play like there is in tournament play. It boggles my mind that in a $1 tournament, you can get an extra minute to think, but for a $300 pot in a cash game, no such option exists. I really needed more time to think, and I believe that had I gone through everything in my head, I would have called. But I folded.

SYNODIC - Folds
PHOENIX1010 - returned ($121) : not called
PHOENIX1010 - Shows [9d 9c] (One pair, nines)
PHOENIX1010 Collects $87 from main pot

So it turns out Phoenix made a very nice play on the river to take down the pot. It's a rare poker player who will make this kind of play, and though I knew Phoenix was capable of it, I still don't see it often at the tables. So I don't feel bad about my laydown. Just gotta tip my hat to Phoenix, he earned the pot.

I played in the 100k guaranteed on AP today. I got an email from them saying I was their "VIP Guest" for the tourney, which was a nice surprise. Building my stack up to 13k after an hour and a half and being the chipleader was also a nice surprise. But as usual, my cards went disgustingly sour and I busted without even making the money. My last hand I raised UTG with QQ, and got the rest of my money in on the flop of JTx, only to stare at TT.

I only played one real tough hand, and that came as follows. Blinds 100/200, UTG raises to 700. I had about 11k in my stack at this point, and UTG had about 8k. I don't wanna lose most of my chips here if I'm up against A's or K's, so I reraise to 2600 to try and see where I'm at. UTG moves in, for about 5k more and now I'm staring at 2:1 odds with AKs. I think I should have reraised less in order to give myself worse odds to call if he does indeed move in over the top. I decide to fold, grudgingly, and he says he had KK (but doesn't show.)

I still dunno if I made the right fold. If I call and win, I have 20k. If I call and lose, I have 5k. Folding left me with a healthy 9k. Should I have gambled for the 2:1 odds?

Well either way, I folded...and my 9k stack never build back up. I wasn't very happy with the results...but I'm pretty happy with my play.

::

Ring games are going ok. I'm still up for the month...which is rather amazing to me. My 3 of a kinds are winning 52% at showdown; woefully low. I've been all in with AA twice this month preflop. Both times against A2, both times I lost. (WTF?!) And at one point, I counted 6 consecutive straight flush draws I missed. My big hands aren't getting paid...if you don't believe me look at this.

So to be up for the month, I'm happy.

::

Kudos to Allen Cunningham for finishing 4th in the main event. Man I was rooting hard for him. Woulda been great for the game of poker.

WTF is going on? I can't win ANYTHING!

Why do I lose at the worst times? I really can't afford to be losing right now. That being the case, I hit a set of 5's and lose to a set of Q's, and then the classic running into a maniac with AA when I have KK. (Only I'm not so lucky to pull a K out of my ass on the river.) The other all in for the day had me with AKs v KTs all in preflop. Not only did the T hit the flop, but KT also flopped a 4 flush...just to rub it in. What am I supposed to do? I have the best of it in nearly every big pot (or lose with set over set, flush over higher flush.) And to no avail, I lose. Even considering the nice upswing from last week...I'm barely treading water. It's just one beat after another...forever and ever.

My morale is hurting. I keep picking myself up and throwing myself back on the tables, only to get killed again and again. These sorts of swings wouldn't be bothering me much at all were I to have an ok bankroll. But I don't. Why can't I just have one sustained upswing? Why has this whole year been filled with one kick in the nuts after another?

This is almost more than I can take. I've been running bad for 8 months now. In the online poker world, that is an eternity. How much more am I gonna have to endure, and how much more can I endure?

I guess you could say I'm currently running bad !!

I hate playing big pot poker. I wanna slowly take these players money without a showdown. But on the weekends it just doesn't seem to be possible. Weekend players are barely able to fold top pair, which is nice so long as you can hit cards and have em hold up. But the skill level gets dumbed down a bit, and ABC poker becomes the most profitable.

I've gotten killed this weekend so far, and the sad thing is, I've actually had some hands. I've been hitting sets, but only 2 things seem to be happening with them; they win almost nothing, or get outdrawn for a substantial amount of money.

It's only been a few days of running poorly, but it's hitting me harder than normal because I only have a small amount of money in my poker account.

In case you didn't notice, I switched to Synodic on AP, in order to get rakeback. And apparently my FirePay deposit limits are terribly small. So I couldn't deposit as much as I needed to.

Anyways, back to the tables for me.

::update::

I don't get it. I really don't.

mmm, another gem. i was waiting all day to pick this guy off, and i finally catch him...only to have someone behind me with a flopped flush. sweet.